Escalation, escalation, escalation!

Let’s go back to basic principles here. Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia has bombarded towns and villages to rubble. Departing troops have looted, raped and murdered the way through their retreat.

I think the ‘West’, the coalition is actually much larger, has been painfully patient with Putin’s antics.

And Putin has stupidly backed himself into a corner. So many are worrying about the escalation to a nuclear war with Russia.

Here’s why it’s not realistic.

The world would unanimously turn against Russia, literally in the blink of an eye.

It would come in many forms but the two biggest would be absolute financial and political isolation plus the inevitable military outcome.

If Putin Dropped a nuke in Ukraine any discussion of escalation is over.

So the full resources of NATO go into overdrive. Putin’s Nuclear capability has just become a justified military target for the entire world.

So now Russia has been internationally condemned, lost its permanent seat and veto power on the UN security council, etc… and has the whole world about to conduct a special military operation within its borders to neutralize their ability to use nuclear weapons.

At best for Russia they are just isolated from the rest of the world and the UN and NATO set up bases on the Ukraine border after ejecting the Russian army.

Russia may be allowed to survive without military intervention into its territory.

Russia tiny chance to walk away unscathed would be NATO holds back on smashing the Russian army on Ukraine and Russia is allowed to carry out an organized withdrawal of forces under supervision of UN peace keepers.

We are talking here, if Putin used a nuke, the world would put Russia in a box and close the lid. Think North Korea has only threatened the use of nukes…

By the way, if for example, Putin dropped a tactical nuke (‘small’ battlefield nuke – not a city buster) onto say Bakumut… then what?

He’d have to withdraw all his troops first, it’d make military sense to do this to save his troops, and also Ukraine seeing the withdrawal would think ‘great, let’s garrison this town quickly’ and move in troops to do just that.

Then the nuke arrives and kills 2000 Ukraine military troops and 6,000 Ukraine civilians (and ‘Russian-speaking Russians being liberated‘) and leaves the town a nuclear wasteland for the next 50 years.

This is Putin ‘defending’ the population of Bakmut from the ‘nazi’ government in Kyiv… well now every civvy he was defending just got nuked, by him.

So? Now any strategic advantage that may come for the Russians for taking Bakmut is gone, it’s a nuclear wasteland now.

They can’t raise the Russian flag there, say it’s occupied, or use it as a logistical route – it’s a nuclear wasteland. What does Russia gain?

Apart from international political suicide.

He can’t push that button.

How to end it: Give Russia a security guarantee it won’t be invaded by NATO unless Russia attacks a member state and NATO will no longer accept new members, Russia has to accept Ukraine might is allowed to join the EU. Demand all forces redeploy to pre-Feb 24 2022 positions and an international tribunal of Crimea is established to diplomatically decide the fate of Crimea. With all parties agreeing to peacefully abide by the outcome. Let this become a moment when diplomacy has its finest hour.